Last Thursday I hosted the Real Estate Symposium dinner and it was a great success. Some of the economic medicine dished out with the wine by the excellent speakers – Jonathan Davis and Michael Coogan – did not dampen the mood. In fact, it led to a lively debate in the subsequent “open mike” session. And the morning after I am sure it provided some food for thought amid the current relief and euphoria pervading the property transaction marketplace.
The immediate concerns are, rightly, how to get enough conveyancing resource to cope with the upturn. However the shadow of global economic factors look set to have a negative impact in the long term. The world is changing – economic power is shifting away from us , volatility is increasing in equity markets and regional political instability elsewhere threatens us all.
Meanwhile, in the UK, the current government is more concerned about winning the next election than a stable market recovery and is stimulating the market with short term mechanisms that may well be artificially inflating demand.
Both factors will weigh on the long term prospect for sustained recovery. The consensus at the dinner was that the next 3 years would be good for the industry with increasing volumes. ”Make Hay While It Lasts” was the rallying cry when some were hoping for a chorus of “Things Can Only Get Better”.
What wasn’t discussed, however, was whether the UK market would ever get back to the pre-Lehmans status quo of 1.2M transactions (± 200K). My view is that it won’t but that is educated speculation and others may disagree. I would be interested in your view. Please send me your comments.
In my previous Blog I said the next one would be about the other important “cycle” in our industry – the corporate/consolidation to entrepreneur/innovation cycle and how this can stimulate new, more efficient and profitable trading. Instead this blog has turned into Part 2 of the first. Promise to get onto this the next time…